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Three Year Report – UP 504%
The 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund consists of: BTC, XRP, ETH, BCH, EOS, Stellar, USDT, Litecoin, BSV, and Tron.
December highlights for the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio:
- A very bloody December
- Ethereum in the overall lead, up +2,608% since January 2019, more than double the ROI of second place Bitcoin.
- After three years, the 2019 Portfolio is +504%
December Ranking and Dropout Report
Here’s the difference in rank since January 2018:
Top Ten dropouts since January 2019: After three years, 60% of the cryptos that started in the Top Ten in January 2019 have been knocked out. EOS, Litecoin, BSV, Stellar, Bitcoin Cash, and Tron have been replaced by Binance Coin, Cardano, DOT, SOL, Luna, and USDC.
BSV has fallen the furthest so far (#61) – it is the only crypto that has dropped out of the Top Sixty.
December Winners and Losers
December Winners – None, except stablecoin Tether
December Losers – Litecoin had a tough month, losing nearly one third of its value. EOS was the second worst performing crypto in the portfolio, down -24% in December.
Tally of Monthly Winners and Losers
Which crypto holds the most wins or losses over the life of the project? Here’s a snapshot of the winners and losers over the first three years of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment:
By a large margin, Tether has the greatest number of monthly victories (11) followed by ETH with six.
Every crypto has won at least one month since January 2019 and BSV and USDT have the most losses, 11 each (out of 36 months).
Three Year Update – ETH easily outperforms its peers, 100% of cryptos in positive territory, EOS worst performing non-stablecoin
ETH (+2,608%) is far and away the best performer of this group, more than doubling the ROI of second place BTC (+1,144%) over the same period of time.
The $100 investment into first place ETH on January 1st, 2019 is currently worth $2,779.
After three years, 100% of the cryptos in the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio are in positive territory. Not counting stablecoin Tether, the worst performing crypto is EOS, up +18%.
Total Market Cap for the Entire Cryptocurrency Sector:
The entire cryptocurrency sector is up +1,638% since January 2019. This is still well behind first place ETH (2,608%) but much better than the rest of the Top Ten cryptos, including second place Bitcoin (+1,144%). And the total market is performing much better than the Top Ten approach (+504%).
Translation: unless you went all in on ETH or Bitcoin three years ago, you were better off diversifying, and much better off if you had captured the gains of the entire crypto market.
The Top Ten approach has beaten every individual crypto except ETH and Bitcoin.
Crypto Market Cap Low Point in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $114B in January 2019.
Crypto Market Cap High Point in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $2.65T in October 2021.
BitDom dipped in December, ending the month at 40.2%. This is a new low for the 2019 Top Ten Experiment.
For context, here are the high and low points of BTC domination over the life of the 2019 Experiment:
Low Point in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: 40.2% this month.
High Point in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: 70.5% in August 2019.
Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2019:
The 2019 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio lost $1,604 in December. After three years, the value of the initial $1000 investment is $6,044, up +504%. This is down from last month’s all time high for the 2019 Portfolio.
Below is a table summarizing the monthly ROI over the life of the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund experiments, providing a pretty good sense of the journey up to this point:
Fairly steady upward movements punctuated by massive dips. During the Zombie Apocalypse in March 2020, for example, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio was returning only +6%.
Although the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is up an impressive +504%, it is still a distant second place behind the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio which is up +795%.
Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios
Speaking of other Top Ten Portfolios, let’s put them all together now:
- 2018 Top Ten Experiment: up +34% (total value $1,341)
- 2019 Top Ten Experiment: up +504% (total value $6,044)
- 2020 Top Ten Experiment: up +795% (total value $8,951)
- 2021 Top Ten Experiment: up +292% (total value $3,921)
So overall? Taking the four portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $4,000 investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $20,257 ($1,341 + $6,044 + $8,951 + $3,921).
That’s up +406% on the combined portfolios, down from last month’s all time high for the Top Ten Index Fund Experiments. Here’s the combined monthly ROI since I started tracking it in January 2020:
In summary: That’s a +406% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for four straight years.
Comparison to S&P 500:
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiments to have a comparison point with traditional markets.
Because the S&P 500 Index is up 90% since January 2019, the initial $1k investment I put into crypto three years ago would be worth $1,900 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019.
But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging $1,000-per-year-on-January-1st-Crypto-Index-Fund-Experiment approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1,780 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1,900 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1,480 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2021 = $1,270 today
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After four $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, my portfolio would be worth $6,430 ($1,780 + $1,900 + $1,480 + $1,270).
That is up +61% since January 2018 compared to a +406% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
Here’s a table providing an overview of the four year ROI comparison between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P:
To both old-timers and newcomers: thanks so much for taking the time to read and for supporting the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments. I hope you find the updates helpful in terms of perspective as you navigate the crypto landscape. Be careful out there and don’t put your mental, physical, or financial health at risk chasing gainz. If crypto is causing you to lose sleep at night, chances are you have too much in crypto: try to think long term and don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects tracking the Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2018 (the OG experiment), January 1st, 2020, January 1st, 2021, and most recently, January 1st, 2022.
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