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Month Thirty-Three – UP 510%
The 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund consists of: BTC, XRP, ETH, BCH, EOS, Stellar, USDT, Litecoin, BSV, and Tron.
September highlights for the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio:
- The portfolio followed an all green August with an all red September.
- Tron inched out BTC for best performer this month, EOS worst performing
- ETH and BTC are leading the pack and carrying the entire portfolio. Ethereum is up +2,300% since January 2019.
September Movement Report, Ranking, and Dropouts
All of the 2019 cryptos either maintained their place or fell in the rankings this month:
- BSV – down 8 places (#46–#54)
- EOS – down 7 places (#33–>#40)
- Bitcoin Cash – down 4 places (#14–>#18)
- Stellar – down 1 place (#22–>#23)
Top Ten dropouts since January 2019: After thirty-three months, 60% of the cryptos that started in the Top Ten in January 2019 have been knocked out. EOS, Litecoin, BSV, Stellar, Bitcoin Cash, and Tron have been replaced by Binance Coin, Cardano, DOT, SOL, Doge, and USDC.
BSV has fallen the furthest so far – it is the only crypto that has dropped out of the Top Fifty.
September Winners and Losers
September Winners – Besides Tether, all cryptos finished in the red. Tron (-2.7%) and BTC (-3.3%) lost the least ground.
September Losers – EOS and BSV had a tough month dropping -20% and -19.4% respectively.
Tally of Monthly Winners and Losers
Which crypto holds the most wins or losses over the life of the project? Here’s a snapshot of the winners and losers over the first thirty-three months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment:
By a large margin, Tether has the greatest number of monthly victories (10) followed by BTC with five.
Every crypto has won at least one month since January 2019 and BSV has the most losses: it has underperformed its peers 11 out of 33 months (or 33% of the time).
Overall Update – ETH far ahead of 2nd place BTC, all cryptos in positive territory, BSV worst performing
ETH is easily the best performer of this group, up 2,300% as of this report, almost double the ROI of second place BTC (+1172%) over the same period of time.
The $100 investment into first place ETH on January 1st, 2019 is currently worth $2,463.
After thirty-three months, 100% of the cryptos in the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio are in positive territory. Not counting stablecoin Tether, the worst performing crypto is BSV, which is up +47%.
Total Market Cap for the Entire Cryptocurrency Sector:
The total crypto market lost about $108B in September, settling at just over $2.1T.
The entire cryptocurrency sector is up +1562% since January 2019. This is still well behind first place ETH (2,300%) but much better than the rest of the Top Ten cryptos, including second place Bitcoin (+1172%). And the total market is performing much better than the Top Ten approach (+510%).
Translation: unless you picked ETH correctly thirty-three months ago, you were better off diversifying. And the Top Ten approach has beaten every individual crypto except BTC and ETH.
Crypto Market Cap Low Point in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $114B in January 2019.
Crypto Market Cap High Point in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $2.22T last month.
BitDom bounced slightly in September, up to 43.2% compared to 42% in August. This is the low end of the range when looking at the timeframe as a whole. For context, here are the high and low points of BTC domination over the life of the 2019 Experiment:
Low Point in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: 41.9% in May 2021.
High Point in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: 70.5% in August 2019.
Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2019:
The 2019 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio lost $748 in September. After thirty-three months the value of the initial $1000 investment is $6,098, up +510%.
Below is a table summarizing the monthly ROI over the life of the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund experiments, providing a pretty good sense of the journey up to this point:
Fairly steady upward movements punctuated by massive dips. During the Zombie Apocalypse, for example, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio was returning only +6%.
Although the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is up an impressive +510%, it is still a distant second place behind the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio which is up +731%.
Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios
Speaking of other Top Ten Portfolios, let’s put them all together now:
- 2018 Top Ten Experiment: up +46% (total value $1,460)
- 2019 Top Ten Experiment: up +510% (total value $6,098)
- 2020 Top Ten Experiment: up +731% (total value $8,309)
- 2021 Top Ten Experiment: up +333% (total value $4,330)
Taking the four portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $4,000 investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $20,197 ($1,460 + $6,098 + $8,309 + $4,330).
That’s up +405% on the combined portfolio. Below is a table to help visualize the progress of the Experiment as a whole:
In summary: That’s an +405% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for four straight years.
Comparison to S&P 500:
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiments to have a comparison point with traditional markets. For the first time in nearly a year, the S&P 500 did not reach a month end all time high:
Because the S&P 500 Index is up 74% since January 2019, the initial $1k investment I put into crypto thirty-three months ago would be worth $1,740 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019.
Even though an extremely solid return for traditional markets, that +74% return is four hundred and thirty-six percentage points behind the return of the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio over the same time period.
But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging $1,000-per-year-on-January-1st-Crypto-Index-Fund-Experiment approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1,630 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1,740 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1,350 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2021 = $1,160 today
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After four $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, my portfolio would be worth $5,880 ($1,630 + $1,740 + $1,350 + $1,160)
That is up +47% since January 2018 compared to a +405% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios, a difference of over nearly 360 percentage points in favor of crypto.
Here’s a table providing an overview of the four year ROI comparison between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P:
September was bumpy in crypto to say the least, but it was also a rough month for traditional markets. Although a down month for the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio, the zoomed out picture clearly shows crypto is in control and is clearly providing much better ROI than traditional markets.
To both old-timers and newcomers: thanks so much for taking the time to read and for supporting the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments. I hope you find the updates helpful in terms of perspective as you navigate the crypto landscape. Be careful out there and don’t put your mental, physical, or financial health at risk chasing gainz. If crypto is causing you to lose sleep at night, chances are you have too much in crypto: try to think long term and don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose.
Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects tracking the Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2018 (the OG experiment), January 1st, 2020, and most recently, January 1st, 2021.
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