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Month Twenty-Four – UP 40%
The 2021 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund consists of: BTC, ETH, USDT, XRP, Litecoin, DOT, BCH, ADA, BNB, and LINK.
December highlights for the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio:
- Every crypto in the 2021 Portfolio in the red
- BNB continues to maintain a strong overall lead
- 2021 Top Ten Portfolio is up +40% in twenty-four months
December Ranking and Dropout Report
Top Ten dropouts since January 2021: twenty-four months into the 2021 Top Ten Experiment, four cryptos have dropped out: Chainlink, Litecoin, Polkadot and Bitcoin Cash. They have been replaced by MATIC, BUSD, DOGE, and USDC.
December Winners and Losers
December Winners – None, unless you count USDT. BTC lost only -3% this month.
December Losers – LINK (-27%) followed by DOT (-23%).
Two-Year Update – BNB dominates, 50% of cryptos in green, BCH worst performing
As has been the case for much of the 2021 Top Ten Experiment, BNB remains the dominant crypto in the portfolio, by far. It is up +527%, the $100 investment into BNB twenty-four months ago is now worth $629. ETH is in distant second place, +62% in two years, the $100 now worth $163.
At the bottom, BCH is the worst performing of the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio cryptos at this point in the Experiment, down -72% since January, 2021.
Total Market Cap for the Entire Cryptocurrency Sector:
As a sector, crypto is up +3% since January 2021.
You may notice that the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio has produced better returns than the overall crypto market cap (+40% vs. +3%) over the twenty-four month life of the 2021 Portfolio.
This is a bit of an outlier: the rest of the Top Ten Experiments are well behind over their respective market caps in their respective time frames. Here are the latest figures:
- 2018 Top Ten Portfolio: -59% for the Top Ten vs. +38% for the total market cap
- 2019 Top Ten Portfolio: +126% for the Top Ten vs. +525% for the total market cap
- 2020 Top Ten Portfolio: +251% for the Top Ten vs. +319% for the total market cap
- 2021 Top Ten Portfolio: +40% for the Top Ten vs. +3% for the total market cap
- 2022 Top Ten Portfolio: -80% for the Top Ten vs. -64% for the total market cap
Although the 2021 Top Ten approach has held up quite well compared to the overall market so far, I expect to see it fall behind eventually, like the other experiments.
Crypto Market Cap Low Point in the 2021 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $775B in January 2021.
Crypto Market Cap High Point in the 2021 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $2.6T in October 2021.
BitDom dropped to a new 2021 Top Ten Portfolio low in December, ending the month at 40.1%.
BitDom Low Point in the 2021 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: 39.1% in August 2022.
BitDom High Point in the 2021 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: 70.4% in January 2021.
Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2021:
Overall, the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio is up +40%. The initial $1000 investment twenty-four months ago, on New Year’s Day, 2021, is worth $1,402.
Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2021 Top Ten Experiment, to give you a sense of perspective as we go along:
Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios
As most readers are aware, this is the fifth year of an Experiment I started back in January of 2018, at the height of the last crypto bull run. Where do we stand if we combine five years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments?
- 2018 Top Ten Experiment: down -59% (total value $413)
- 2019 Top Ten Experiment: up +126% (total value $2,260)
- 2020 Top Ten Experiment: up +251% (total value $3,513) (best performing portfolio)
- 2021 Top Ten Experiment: up +40% (total value $1,402)
- 2022 Top Ten Experiment: down -76% (total value $240) (worst performing portfolio)
So overall? Taking the five portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom line:
After five annual $1k investments ($5,000 total) in the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $7,828.
That’s up +57% on the combined portfolios. The peak for the combined Top Ten Index Fund Experiment Portfolios was November 2021’s all time high of +533%
To visualize the progress of the combined portfolios:
In summary: That’s a +57% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for five straight years.
Comparison to S&P 500
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets.
The S&P 500 Index is up +2% since January 1st, 2021. The initial $1k investment I put into crypto twenty-four months ago would be worth $1,020 had it been redirected to the S&P 500.
The 2021 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is up +40% over the same time period – the initial $1k investment in crypto twenty-four months ago is now worth $1,402.
That’s a difference of $382 on a $1k investment in twenty-four months.
What about in the longer term? What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first five years of the Top Top Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1,440 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1,530 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1,190 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2021 = $1,020 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2022 = $810 today
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After five $1,000 investments ($5,000 total) into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 my portfolio would be worth $5,990.
That is up +20% since January 2018 compared to a +57% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
To help provide perspective, here’s a chart showing the combined five year ROI for the Crypto Top Ten Experiment vs. the S&P up to this point:
To the long time followers of the Top Ten Experiments, thank you so much for sticking around so long. For those just getting into crypto, I hope these reports will help prepare you for the highs and lows that await on your crypto adventures. Buckle up, go with the flow, think long term, don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose, and most importantly, try to enjoy the ride.
Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. A reporting note: I’ll focus on 2022 Top Ten Portfolio reports + one other portfolio on a rotating basis this year, so expect two reports from me per month. December’s extended report is the one you’re reading now (the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio). You can check out the latest 2018 Top Ten (the OG Experiment), 2019 Top Ten, and 2020 Top Ten reports as well.
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