Month Three – Up 16.6%
Building on February’s +4% gain, March was quite good a month for the cryptos involved in the experiment. The Top Ten portfolio added another +12%, bringing the total gain from January 1st, 2019 to +16.6%. While the spreadsheet makes it look pretty even in terms of reds and greens, you’ll notice that the losses are all quite mild (ranging from -1% to -3%), while the gains are fairly significant (ranging from +4% to +31%).
Ranking
Not much movement this month, and all of it downward. Tether and Tron both slipped two places to #9 and #11, respectively, and BTCSV dropped one from #11 to #12. Tron joins BTCSV as the second crypto to have already dropped out of the Top Ten. They have been replaced by Cardano and Binance Coin.
March Winners – Litecoin lead the pack in March, gaining +31%, followed closely by Bitcoin Cash and Stellar, up +28% and +27% for the month.
March Losers – BTCSV and Ripple performed the worst, but were only down -3% and -2%, respectively, for the month.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 3 months of this experiment: EOS, Litecoin, and Tron each have one victory each. Bitcoin SV has lost two out of the first three months. Tron has recorded one monthly loss as well.
Overall update – Litecoin increases its lead, BTCSV down nearly 1/3rd.
So far, so good. Only three of the Top Ten have significantly lost value, the rest are at break even or in the green. Litecoin is having a great start to 2019, up nearly +100% on the year. EOS is in second place as of the end of March, up +61%. That initial $100 investment in Litecoin is now worth $200 bucks.
Bitcoin SV has lost about a third of its value since January 1st, 2019, down -31%. The initial $100 investment is now worth about $70.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
The market gained $15B and was up +11% in the last month and up +14% on the year. The end of March saw the highest total market cap so far for 2019.
Bitcoin dominance:
Bitcoin dominance dropped again in March, inching closer to the psychologically significant 50% mark. If experiment history is any indication, we can expect to see BTC dominance drop as/if the overall market gains strength and people feel more willing to risk investing in projects other than Bitcoin.
Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2019:
If I cashed out today, my $1,000 initial investment would return $1165, a 16% gain. This is a better return than the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500, see below).
Implications/Observations:
Another first for my series of experiments: March 2019 marked the first time I’ve been able to record back to back winning months since I started these Top Ten Crypto Index Fund style experiments.
Another difference from last year’s Top Ten: for the third month in a row, the 2019 Top Ten Experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten was a winning strategy. Specifically, the 2019 Top Ten have so far returned +2% more than the entire market. This is a stark departure from last year: at no point in the Top Ten 2018 Experiment did this investment strategy work. The initial 2018 Top Ten under-performed every single month compared to the market overall last year.
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a pretty significant December dip, the stock market rebounded nicely in 2019. Had I redirected my $1000 investment to the S&P 500, I would have been up about +$130, compared to the +$165 I’m currently ahead in crypto.
Conclusion:
For the first time in 15 months of reporting, I’ve been able to report two consecutive positive months. Two months don’t make a pattern, but it is a positive sign. I look forward to seeing if the early April gains hold through the entire month.
If you’re just finding this experiment now, here’s the backstory: On the 1st of January, 2018, I bought $100 each of the Top Ten cryptos at the time for a total investment of $1000 to see how they would perform over the year. I tracked the experiment and reported each month. The result? I ended 2018 down -85%, my $1000 worth only $150.
After last year’s experiment ended, I decided to do two things:
- Extend the Top Ten 2018 Crypto project one more year. The experiment is now in its 15th month. You can check out the latest update here.
- What you’re reading now is the 3rd report of a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019.
Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
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