Tracking 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – Month Sixteen

Month Sixteen – UP 37%

What a difference a month makes. From 100% red during the zombie apocalypse (March), to all green and +37% since January 2019.

Ranking and April Winners and Losers

Besides Stellar (up two spots to #11) and EOS (down from #8 to #9) every other crypto was locked in place.

Stellar and Tron are still the only two cryptos to have dropped out of the 2019 Top Ten (although 2018 Champion Stellar, now at #11, seems to be making a move to reclaim its spot). They have been replaced by Binance Coin and Tezos.

April Winners – At +75% for the month, Stellar was easily the best performing crypto of the 2019 Top Ten group. Second place goes to ETH, up +57% in April.

April Losers – Always a pleasure to report when the rest of the field beats Tether at the end of the month (no offense Tether). Although up +15%, the second worst performer in April was Bitcoin Cash.

For nerds and those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first sixteen months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: Tether is still in the lead with five monthly victories followed by BSV in second place with three.  BSV also holds the most monthly losses, finishing last in five out of sixteen months.

Overall update – BSV overtaken by BTC, XRP worst performing 

After losing ground the last few months, BSV finally gave up its lead to Bitcoin this month. BTC is up +135% compared to a +125% gain for BSV since January 2019. That initial $100 investment in BTC is now worth $240.

50% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos are up at least +50% since January 2019.

Thanks to its stellar month (see what I did there?) Stellar made up a ton of ground. It is still down -38% at this point in the experiment but technically out of last place: it has overtaken XRP, which is down -39%.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market added about $63B in April 2020, basically getting back to late February levels. It has roughly doubled (+95%) since January 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

BitDom was steady in April. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:

The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio gained over $300 in April. After the initial $1000 investment, this group of cryptos is worth $1368, up about +37%. 

Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first sixteen months of the experiment, month by month:

A lot of green here (as opposed to the all red table you’ll see in the 2018 experiment). As you can see, every month except the first month ends in positive territory. At the lowest point, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio was down -9%, at the highest point, up +114% (May 2019).

How does the 2019 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?

• 2018 Top Ten Experiment: down -82% ($183)
• 2020 Top Ten Experiment: up about +42% ($1,419)

Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line: 

After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,969‬.

That’s down about -1% for the combined portfolios. Definitely better than last month (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels.

How does this compare to traditional markets?

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m glad you asked. I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. April 2020 saw a large rebound in the stock market and is now up +13% since the start of the 2019 Experiment.

The 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning +37% over the same time period, three times better than the S&P 500.

The initial $1k investment I put into crypto would be worth $1,130 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019.

But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging/$1,000-per-year-in-January approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:

• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$60
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$130
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$120

Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: 

After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,070.

That $3,070 is up about +2% since January 2018, compared to the $2,969 value (-1%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.

That’s a only a 3% difference. Last month the gap was 13%.

Implications/Observations:

While the crypto market as a whole is up +95% since January 2019, the 2019 Top Ten cryptos have gained just +37%, a massive 58% gap.

This is similar to the 2018 Top Ten portfolio as at no point in the first twenty-eight months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the market in this 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And the first four months of 2020 Experiment updates show that focusing on the Top Ten is a winning strategy, at least at this point in the 2020 Top Ten portfolio.

Conclusion:

The BTC Halving is coming. COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc on the globe. How will the crypto market handle these events in May?

Final word: second waves of COVID-19 are definitely possible. Please take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, wear a mask, and wash your hands. Be careful out there.

Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the recently launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment.

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